Reputation as math, conditioned on outcomes.
The LOO maintains a Beta(α, β) posterior per (peptide, indication, baseline-biomarker bin, cohort cohort) tuple. Successful primary-endpoint outcomes - weighted by evidence grade and BioGate tier - increment α; null and adverse outcomes increment β. Every revealed OEA-V1 updates the relevant cells.
Posterior heatmap · P(success | peptide × indication)opacity = sample size · color = mean P
| Peptide | soft-tissue recovery | metabolic / GLP-1 | GH optimization | skin remodeling | cognitive resilience | longevity / circadian | antimicrobial research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BPC-157 bpc-157 | 77% n≈34 | 23% n≈-29 | 42% n≈-22 | 45% n≈16 | 38% n≈-134 | 48% n≈126 | 37% n≈-25 |
TB-500 (Thymosin β-4 fragment) tb-500 | 39% n≈103 | 31% n≈-51 | 48% n≈12 | 39% n≈-78 | 41% n≈61 | 30% n≈-26 | 28% n≈56 |
GHK-Cu ghk-cu | 41% n≈-82 | 16% n≈-196 | 8% n≈-420 | 45% n≈-101 | 21% n≈-133 | 44% n≈94 | 40% n≈-96 |
Semaglutide semaglutide | 18% n≈-179 | 35% n≈134 | 44% n≈37 | 39% n≈-34 | 48% n≈65 | 5% n≈-565 | 44% n≈-75 |
CJC-1295 (with DAC) cjc-1295 | 9% n≈324 | 16% n≈188 | 45% n≈-65 | 11% n≈-378 | 6% n≈594 | 48% n≈-82 | 26% n≈46 |
Ipamorelin ipamorelin | 40% n≈-81 | 22% n≈94 | 63% n≈27 | 8% n≈789 | 14% n≈67 | 30% n≈-45 | 24% n≈-52 |
Selank selank | 28% n≈8 | 38% n≈98 | 36% n≈-68 | 12% n≈163 | 47% n≈-45 | 43% n≈147 | 17% n≈85 |
Epitalon epitalon | 47% n≈-75 | 46% n≈92 | 49% n≈-34 | 47% n≈25 | 25% n≈234 | 28% n≈-69 | 10% n≈354 |
LL-37 (Cathelicidin) ll-37 | 48% n≈-57 | 21% n≈7 | 13% n≈137 | 31% n≈-21 | 9% n≈-520 | 47% n≈40 | 44% n≈20 |
P:
opacity:
→ sample size
Per-peptide posteriors
BPC-157
88.1%β(33.8, 4.6) · 95% CI [76%, 100%]
TB-500 (Thymosin β-4 fragment)
31.6%β(31.7, 68.7) · 95% CI [20%, 44%]
GHK-Cu
35.6%β(41.5, 75.1) · 95% CI [24%, 48%]
Semaglutide
29.7%β(10.8, 25.5) · 95% CI [18%, 42%]
CJC-1295 (with DAC)
35.0%β(23.0, 42.6) · 95% CI [23%, 47%]
Ipamorelin
67.6%β(18.0, 8.6) · 95% CI [56%, 80%]
Selank
54.5%β(27.8, 23.2) · 95% CI [43%, 67%]
Epitalon
52.8%β(47.0, 42.0) · 95% CI [41%, 65%]
LL-37 (Cathelicidin)
15.6%β(12.6, 68.3) · 95% CI [4%, 28%]
Posterior update log
| When | Peptide | Cohort | Δ posterior mean | Sample bump | tx hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | BPC-157 | cohort-2026-q1-bpc-04 | +4.68% | +26 | 3bcbb8e03ccbba… |
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | TB-500 (Thymosin β-4 fragment) | cohort-2026-q1-tb-04 | +4.29% | +29 | 1a0e3d61190e3b… |
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | GHK-Cu | cohort-2026-q1-ghk-04 | +1.80% | +10 | c9235e9cca2360… |
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | Semaglutide | cohort-2026-q1-semaglutide-04 | +2.15% | +11 | dba6e213daa6e0… |
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | CJC-1295 (with DAC) | cohort-2026-q1-cjc-04 | -0.83% | +21 | 5cd05cad5bd05b… |
| 2026-04-22 14:11 | Ipamorelin | cohort-2026-q1-ipamorelin-04 | -0.83% | +29 | 484064d9474063… |